Run line vs moneyline: the same game, two prices, two margins
- The vig, the amount over 100 (%)
- 4.76
- First side, implied probability as priced (%)
- 52.38
- Other side, implied probability as priced (%)
- 52.38
Every figure on this site comes out of the prices you type and the arithmetic printed beside them. There is no feed, no price of our own and no third-party data: the site holds no odds at all, only the method for reading the ones you already have. Conversions are exact, not approximations, and the American-to-probability step is written out on each page so you can check it by hand.
A run line and a moneyline are two prices on the same game asking two different questions, and the only way to compare them is to convert both into probabilities and take the margin out of each. Once that is done the run line stops looking like a discount and starts looking like what it is: a different event, priced separately, with its own margin sitting on top of it. This page sets out the conversion, then hands the two prices to the no-vig calculator so the fair numbers appear side by side.
Open the No Vig Calculator and No Vig Odds Calculator Free to use. No account, no card, nothing to buy.
Write both prices as probabilities
A minus price divides its own size by itself plus 100, so minus 150 is 150/250, or 60%. A plus price divides 100 by itself plus 100, so plus 130 is 100/230, or 43.48%. Do this to both sides of the moneyline and to both sides of the run line before anything else, because two prices in different alphabets cannot be compared at all.
Add each pair up and read the overround
The two sides of a market add to more than 100%, and the amount over is the margin. A standard pair at minus 110 adds to 104.76, so 4.76 points sit on top of the probabilities. Run lines and moneylines on the same game usually carry different amounts, which is the first thing the comparison actually turns on.
Strip the margin and compare the fair prices
Divide each side by the pair's total to get the fair probability, then convert that back to a price. What you now hold is the market's view of the run line and the market's view of the moneyline with the charge removed from both, which is the only honest comparison of the two. The difference between them is the value of the extra run and a half, in probability.
Check the charge you are paying on each
Hold, the margin as a share of the whole book, is the number that says which of the two prices costs more to take. It is frequently the deciding difference between a run line and a moneyline that look similar once the vig is out, and it is an output of the calculator rather than something you have to work out.
Run line vs moneyline: what people ask about the arithmetic
Is the run line just a cheaper moneyline?
No. It is a different outcome: a margin of victory rather than a victory. Once both prices are converted and stripped of their margin, the two fair probabilities are usually far apart, and which one is better value depends entirely on your own view of the game, which this site does not have.
Why do the two sides add up to more than 100%?
Because the extra is the charge for making the market. It is not an error and it is not a probability: it is the margin, and it is why a raw implied probability always overstates the chance of the outcome it is attached to.
Does taking the vig out tell me which side to take?
It does not, and nothing on this site does. Removing the margin tells you what the market's view is with the charge removed. What to do with that is a decision this site makes no contribution to.
Can I compare a run line at one book with a moneyline at another?
You can compare their fair probabilities, which is exactly what the calculator produces, as long as you convert and strip both. Comparing raw prices across two markets carrying different margins is the mistake the arithmetic exists to prevent.